Mr. Moderate

The State of Israel was born on or about May 14, 1948 when the Jews declared themselves free from the British Mandate established by the League of Nations after World War I. Since that time, the State of Israel has been in a continuous war with the Palestinian people and various Arab states who have at times taken up their cause. Presently, there are definitive peace treaties only with Jordan and Egypt.

I have been watching this conflict over the past several decades, and it seems to me that Israel does not really want peace. Instead, it appears to me that Israel is attempting to gradually push as many Arabs as possible out of “Greater Israel” (which includes at least the West Bank area if not the Gaza Strip). Every time it appears that things might be settling down so that peace talks could begin, Israel seems to find an excuse to do something to set off the fighting once again.

As the occupying power, Israel has a duty under international law to protect the Palestinian people. It is failing in that duty. It claims on the one hand that the government of the Palestinian people is at fault, but on the other hand, it refuses to allow that government to have much of its lawful tax revenue or any real power (such as an internationally-recognized government and an army of self-defense). It seems to allow enough weapons to reach the armed Palestinian factions so that they can keep fighting amongst themselves, but not enough so that they could fight effectively against Israel for their own liberation.

The net result of Israel’s policy seems to be that it wants to see as many Palestinians die as possible, with the apparent goal of eventually (gradually, step-by-step) taking over the disputed land and forcing the Palestinians out, through fear, intimidation, and economic slavery. Israel has a stranglehold on the West Bank economy, and nothing gets in or out without Israel’s permission, which is only rarely given. Through an agreement with Egypt, a similar blockade is maintained on the Gaza strip. Thus, Israel keeps millions of Palestinians in what amounts to a slave labor camp, and if they manage to escape, they only fulfill Israel’s goal of forcing the Palestinian people out of the land which Israel desires for its own expansion.

Lets look at a few facts (from the CIA World Factbook and/or the BBC):

1. Israel Proper:
   • Land Area: 20,330 sq km
   • Population: about 6,427,000 (including Jews living in Palestinian areas)
   • 76.4% Jews (about 4,911,000)
   • 23.6% Other (mostly Arabs, about 1,516,000)
   • Population Growth Rate: 1.154%
2. Gaza Strip:
   • Land Area: 360 sq km
   • Population: about 1,500,000 (Jews were evacuated in 2005)
   • Population Growth Rate: 3.660%
3. West Bank:
   • Land Area: 5,640 sq km
   • Jewish Occupied: 500 to 1000 sq km (est.)
   • Population: about 2,536,000 (not counting Israeli Jews in settlements)
   • Population Growth Rate: 2.985%
4. Refugees:
   • Land Area: 0 sq km
   • Population: at least 2,676,000 (UN registered in Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan)
   • Population Growth Rate: 3.000% (est.)

From the above, we can easily discern Israel’s main problem: the Arab population is growing at an average rate of about 3% per year while the Jewish population is growing at a small fraction of that amount. If the non-Jewish population of Israel proper (23.6% of the total) is growing at an estimate rate of 3% per year, then the Jewish part of the population is growing at an annual rate of only 0.584%, which is less than one-fifth of the rate of the Arab population. While the Jews have been able to suppress Arab political activism within their own citizens (Arabs have only 3% of the seats in the elected parliament while having over 23% of the population), that would likely change if the Arabs sensed that they had an effective population majority. With population growth rates being what they are, it appears to be only a matter of time before the Arabs catch up to the Jews. No wonder, then, that the Jews want more land and fewer Arabs within the areas that they control.

If all of the Palestinians in Lebanon, Jordan and Syria were repatriated to within Israel or the Palestinian territories, then there would be a total of about 8,228,000 Palestinians lined up against about 4,911,000 Jews. Excluding the refugees, there are already 5,552,000 Arabs living under Israeli control (Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip). Israel is as firmly committed as it can be to never allowing Arabs to gain voting strength over their government. While this attitude of the Jews is understandable, it stands against the legitimate internationally-recognized rights of the Palestinian people (UN General Assembly Resolution 194 and Article 13 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights).

The more time that goes by, the tighter Israel tightens the screws on the Arabs living under its control. The wall that snakes its way through the West Bank is accompanied by blockades, checkpoints, and recurring military actions by Israel in both the West Bank and Gaza. These actions are not designed to win peace; they are bound to provoke further bitter hatred of Israel and acts of violence by extremist militants. It is a vicious cycle that has gone on for decades and shows no signs of ending.

If Israel really wants peace, it needs to just take control of the Palestinian areas, impose secular schooling, health care, jobs, and the other benefits of a peaceful society. After two to four decades of Israeli rule, enough peaceful Palestinians would be raised up to allow the formation of a peaceful Palestinian government. But again, it appears to me that Israel does not really wish peace, but rather wishes to drive the Arabs out of at least the West Bank. The military control that Israel exercises over the Jordan River valley is inexplicable as anything but a land grab for future Jewish settlers who would then effectively surround the Arabs and confine them into a set of blockade-separated Palestinian homelands that bears way too much resemblance to the black homelands of the apartheid government of South Africa.

But without even considering the West Bank and Gaza, Israel loses ground against its own Arab population at the rate of about 17,000 new Israelis per year. Yes, at that rate it will take the Arabs two centuries to gain parity with the Jews. But for how long can the Jews continue to run a Jewish-only government that ignores the needs of a quarter of its own people? That is twice the proportion of black people in the United States when the Civil Rights movement got going good during the 1960s.

The morally correct course of action at this point in time is to unify the entire area under a single government. As I mentioned above, the Israeli government would then need to establish secular schools and public services while incarcerating the militants who refuse peace. If Israel creates some kind of bicameral legislature where the Arabs would control the lower house (based upon their population) and the Jews controlled the upper house (based upon some rational basis or another), then perhaps everybody could get along for enough years that the Arabs would not want to just kill or expel the Jews when they finally were able to gain complete political control. But of course, no Jewish politician would dare to ever propose such a solution!

The bottom line appears to me to be that Israel can’t afford peace, and needs to keep the war going “forever.” When push comes to shove with the United States, there will be some face-saving agreement of some sort or another, but there will always be another provocation to prevent any real solution from emerging. But with the Jewish settlers taking more and more land each year from the Palestinians (Israel and its settlers already control over 21,000 out of 26,330 sq km), and the Palestinians having a much faster growing population than Israel, it is only a matter of time before this whole mess will explode once again.

And, unfortunately, there is no good solution anywhere in sight.