Mr. Moderate

Unable to find a decent “permanent” job, I took a one-year contract position with a major contract labor company. This at least allowed me to have access to a decent health care plan, even if I was required to pay the entire group rate premium out of my gross earnings. However, I’m approaching the end of my one-year contract term, and that means I’m approaching the end of my ability to (barely) afford health care. Now, its true that I will have the option of continuing my coverage under the COBRA law. But it is also true that my maximum monthly unemployment benefit will just about equal my health insurance premium under COBRA, so how am I supposed to afford food, shelter, and other basic needs?

Unfortunately, my family and I have chronic health care problems. As long as we are covered by health care insurance, our chronic problems are manageable. But if we ever become uncovered, we descend into medical Hell, and getting covered again becomes increasingly problematic as our chronic conditions are all “pre-existing conditions” for any new plan. This means that I do not dare allow my plan to lapse, as exclusions for “pre-existing conditions” are waived if you are simply moved from one plan to another. That being the case, though, how do I afford food, shelter, etc. while paying for health care?
Continue reading ‘Health Care Horrors’ »

The most powerful instrument in Judeo-Christian theology is the obligation to tithe (the very word “tithe” is derived from the old-English word for “tenth,” so “tithing” is to give one-tenth of your income or estate either as a tax or for religious works, depending on usage). The concept is extremely ancient, tracing back to at least Babylonian times, roughly 4,000 years ago, and probably arises further back in time than that. Religious groups which adhere to a strict concept of tithing tend to survive and grow strong while those which do not will tend to perish over time for lack of funds to keep things going.
Continue reading ‘The Power Of Tithing’ »

It was announced recently that the first quarter of 2007 experienced a further decline in year-over-year housing prices. This was blamed on an unexpectedly-large decline in the month of March. Well now, why could that be? Could it be the housing bubble bursting?

Of course, the announcement was inflated by much optimism in that the quarterly number was less than the reduction in the previous quarter, so the announcement argues that the decline is bottoming-out and recovery (higher prices) should occur in the second half of 2007. Buried deep in the details of the underlying article was the statement that the effects of the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market were yet to be fully factored into the market, and if that kept buyers away, then further declines might occur. Oh, really? Well, then, I predict further declines!
Continue reading ‘Housing: Whistling Through The Graveyard’ »

In his recent book and Salon excerpt It Could Happen Here, Salon columnist Joe Conason argues that George Bush represents a dangerous next step towards an authoritarian fascist dictatorship that would gain power here in the United States much as Adolph Hitler gained power in Germany through winning a popular election. While there might be some reason to fear a fascist takeover of America, given the close links between the Republican Party and big business, I believe that the greater fear would be a popular dictatorship of the type predicted by Oswald Spengler in his book The Decline of the West. The distinction is subtle, so I will begin by defining a few terms.
Continue reading ‘Beyond Fascism’ »

We should not, as a nation, expect people to do things that injure their own interests. When we establish economic incentives and disincentives, we should expect them to operate on the actions of those who become aware of them in the way that a rational person would act. Again, we should not expect the actions taken by thinking people to go against their own self-interests.

When government programs are so structured as to lead to consequences that are literally insane, you have to ask whether or not the politicians creating the programs were themselves insane or whether they were just trying to create a program (and earn some “brownie points”) that would eventually fail, so that they could then axe the program (and earn more “brownie points”). It seems like some government programs were not well thought out as to their consequences. Perhaps we need to have an independent economist review any legislation with any economic impacts and write a report back to the lawmakers about the “Law of Unintended Consequences” as applied to the proposed legislation. Maybe we would not get programs structured like the one that is my topic for today.
Continue reading ‘Welfare Incentives Thrive’ »

Wikipedia has an excellent article on the housing bubble in the United States. I can’t recommend it highly enough. (At least, as the article stood as of the date of this post; it could be changed tomorrow for all I know.) As it sits, it aligns perfectly with my own thinking on this subject. If you want more on my own take on the housing bubble, please read my page on Greater Wealth & Fools.

The bottom line here is this: don’t buy a house anytime soon unless you are in a low-inflation market or can’t afford to wait (if, for instance, you’ve sold your old home and have to “roll over” the gain within a fixed amount of time). Plan on the possibility that housing prices may go lower for the next 5 to 10 years. If you can’t withstand that kind of a housing market, with low inflation leading to low wage increases for those who still have jobs, then rent and do not buy. Sub-prime borrowers should avoid buying altogether, as the sharks have circled for a final feast, and you had better believe that they know their bubble is bursting!